SEMANA reveals the results of a survey carried out, in person, by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría. Voting intention was measured in Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla and Cartagena.
With more than three months to go before Colombians go to the polls and elect the new local power, in the elections on October 29, a survey by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría for SEMANA reveals how the competition starts. The study was carried out between July 31 and August 3, in person.
It is a great first photograph that, in the case of Bogotá, makes it clear that the dispute will be very close and will only be resolved, unless something extraordinary happens, in a second round scheduled for November 19.
Carlos Fernando Galán (22 percent) and Gustavo Bolívar (18.2 percent) are in a technical tie, taking into account that the margin of error of the survey in the country's capital is 4.3 percent. In third place appears Juan Daniel Oviedo (15.6 percent), in a technical tie with Bolívar.
In runoff scenarios, Galán would beat his competitors. For example, the New Liberalism candidate would have 55.2 percent and would defeat Bolívar (27.5 percent). Oviedo, with 27.1 percent, would also lose to Galán (50.6 percent) in a second round.
In the last decade, Bogotá has been a stronghold for petrism. However, the serious crisis facing President Gustavo Petro, after the statements by his son Nicolás about the illicit financing of the presidential campaign, in addition to the wear and tear of the Government, after a year in which controversies have prevailed more than results , could end with the defeat of the Historical Pact.
In other cities in the country, such as Medellín and Barranquilla, the competition seems clearer in favor of candidates who, precisely, represent the opposite of Petro.
In the capital of Antioquia, the survey is led precisely by former mayor Federico Gutiérrez (55.4 percent), followed by Juan Carlos Upegui (4.8 percent) and Liliana Rendón (3.5 percent). Upegui is the candidate of mayor Daniel Quintero, close to President Petro, who has permanently clashed with Gutiérrez.
In Cali, the competition is for renting a balcony and nothing is guaranteed. Although Roberto Ortiz, known as Chontico, leads with 26.1 percent, there are two candidates who are in a technical tie for second place (given the margin of error of 4.3 percent), and who could give him the fight.
This is the case of Alejandro Eder, with 15.8 percent, who has the support of the traditional political parties, and the former independent councilor Diana Rojas (14 percent), whose name has gained great strength in recent weeks. If Eder and Rojas team up, they can defeat Ortiz. The big question is which of the two would step aside in this campaign.
In the case of Barranquilla, the survey reveals the favoritism of former mayor Álex Char, who has 71.1 percent of the intention to vote. For the third time, Char would direct the destinies of the Atlantic capital. His rivals are far away: Antonio Bohórquez registers just 7.8 percent and Hassan Fares reaches 2.5 percent.
In Cartagena, the survey is headed by Dumek Turbay, former governor of Bolívar (30.3 percent). They are followed by William García (16.4 percent) and former mayor Judith Pinedo (8.5 percent).
The elections will be framed by what happens between now and October with President Petro and the national government. The future of the reforms in Congress, the investigations that are being announced for the irregular financing of the campaign, as Nicolás Petro said, and the changes in the cabinet, will move the political chess game. The opposition parties are consolidating a strong anti-Petrist bloc in the Senate and Chamber. For its part, the Historical Pact coalition seems increasingly divided and in different regions there were cracks due to the lack of agreement to grant guarantees and make up the lists.
As usual, local and regional elections are interpreted as a kind of plebiscite on the current president, in this case, Petro. This first great photograph of the survey of the Centro Nacional de Consultoría for SEMANA makes it clear that the candidates who defend the government's theses are relegated, with the exception of Bogotá, where the dispute between Galán and Bolívar is closer. In any case, in electoral politics, three months is a very long period. Nothing is decided. The campaign is just beginning.
Article taken from semana.com