The founder and director of Centro Nacional de Consultoría, CNC, Carlos Lemoine, explained the methodology used in the surveys to the Governor's Office and Mayor's Office of Neiva published on the festive bridge by LA NACIÓN. The results generated all kinds of reactions among the candidates. For Lemoine, "the sampling was carried out according to the ISO 20252 standard, which is the international standard that guarantees the process," he said.
Carlos Lemoine, is also director and founder of the Centro Nacional de Consultoría, civil engineer and mathematician from the National University of Colombia.
In the company of the chief statistician of the Centro Nacional de Consultoría Giovanny Babativa, explained the methodology and scope of the surveys carried out for LA NACION.
The analysis revolved around the political event of the week in the department of Huila, on the one hand, the intention to vote for the governorship of the department and on the other hand the survey of intention to vote for the Neiva mayor's office, which generated many reactions. , the last festive bridge.
In the survey for the Interior, if the elections were to be held tomorrow, Rodrigo Villalba Mosquera appears with a voting intention of 21%, Rodrigo Lara Sánchez 17% and Sandra Hernández 7%, then Héctor Javier Osorio appears, who yesterday announced his candidacy for the mayor's office of Neiva with 4%, Jorge Polanía with 3%, Juan Carlos González 2%, Jesús Méndez, Álvaro Medina and Paulino Galindo with 1%.
For the Mayor of Neiva, Germán Casagua appeared leading the way with 38% and other candidates with voting intentions of 6% Wilker Bautista, Jorge Andrés Gechem with 6%, Amín Losada 5%, Yilber Saavedra 4%, Germán Chicho Rodríguez 3% , among others.
Measurement and methodology
Carlos Lemoine, director of the Centro Nacional de Consultoría, explained that the surveys have a standard procedure, which in their case as a survey firm, is the ISO 20252 standard.
"We are subject to an international quality standard, so the survey has that guarantee that the principles of the standard have been strictly complied with and obviously it is a technical and scientific process," he said.
“Then I am going to refer to the Government figure, which seems to be the one that has caused the most irritation: when it is a sample of many municipalities, it is always a matter of reflecting the universe of study, in this case the universe of study is the over 18 years of age residing in the areas of the municipal capitals”.
And he made the caveat that the Dane statistics changed due to the migration generated by COVID. "COVID meant a reorganization of the population into space, which is why we took that estimate from Dane, which is the most up-to-date official source," he explained.
The sampling was carried out based on Neiva, which has 51% of the estimate, Pitalito, which is another of the large cities, 10%, and the other municipal seats are added as one. Then all three are added, which means there is no distortion at all.
Lemoine defended his work, which is guaranteed by the international standard, scientific basis, and statistics, and incidentally, he stated that he understood the reactions.
“Imagine at my age and forty years old dealing with politicians, I understand that when you expect something and it doesn't come out, then you get upset, and that is human, we are operating within international, quality and technical parameters, not we are responsible that people love one or the other," he added.
"The fault lies with the one who does not fall in love, not with the one who measures," he said, alluding to something that politicians must learn.
Faced with the questioning in the case of the survey of the Governor, from supporters of ex-governor and ex-senator Rodrigo Villalba Mosquera, who attacked the Centro Nacional de Consultoría, replied the entity's head of statistics, Giovanny Babativa.
“As Dr. Carlos said, COVID generated, as a consequence, demographic changes, this caused Dane himself to have to publish an update to the population projections and he did it last March, we within our surveys, we cannot ignore these types of changes and, therefore, the governing body of the official population figures, which is the Dane, is our main reference, ”he said.
And he added: "We consider that it is more technical to use the population given by Dane, which was published two months ago, and which takes all these phenomena into account."
Article taken from lanacion.com.co
By: La Nación