The survey by the Centro Nacional de Consultoria was the closest to the results
The Centro Nacional de Consultoría indicated that De La Espriella had obtained 48.6% of the votes, and in the preliminary count, he reached 49.69%.
In the first round of the presidential election, no pollster predicted that the candidate with the most votes would be the now president-elect, Abelardo De La Espriella. However, for the second round, the scenario was different. Of the pollsters that presented their data, three predicted a victory for the candidate from the Defenders of the Homeland party, and only one, Celag Data, predicted a win for Iván Cepeda, which, given the results, makes Celag Data the biggest loser.
Taking this into account, among those that did correctly predict the winner, the one that came closest to the percentage of votes with which De La Espriella won was the one prepared by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría, CNC, since this reflected that he would have 48.6% of the votes, and for the results of the preliminary count with 99.74% of the polling stations reported, De La Espriella achieved 49.6% of the total, which represents a difference of only 1%.
Guarumo and Atlas Intel both overestimated the percentage, with Guarumo reporting 52.6% and Atlas Intel 53.2%, showing a margin of error of 3% and 4%, respectively. Celag Data was the furthest off the mark with 39.7%, a difference of 10% of the total votes.
Regarding the data received by Iván Cepeda, the polling firm that came closest was Guarumo with 45%, while he actually received 48.7% of the total vote. In this case, the difference was 3%, a wider margin than the closest result for De La Espriella. Next were the firms that most underestimated his vote: Centro Nacional de Consultoría and Atlas Intel, with 44.7% and 44.5%, respectively.
And Celag Data, although it predicted him as the winner, gave him 40.8% of the vote, a difference of 8%, similar to the closest result for De La Espriella.
Article taken from larepublica.co
By: Karen Pinto Duitama
My favorite aspect is that all three companies made the same polling mistake—they failed to account for Cepeda's support—and it was in the same driving directions Their methods may not have caught voter preferences well, especially from groups that were underrepresented in their samples, because of this.
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Reading that the CNC poll came closest is a good reminder that the method behind a number matters more than how confident the number sounds. The polls I remember from that coverage were the ones that were hardest to interrogate — no published weighting, nothing about how the sample was actually drawn. Probabilistic sampling isn't glamorous, but it's checkable, which is most of the point.
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