The survey by the Centro Nacional de Consultoria was the closest to the results
- CNC
- Jun 22
- 2 min read
The Centro Nacional de Consultoría indicated that De La Espriella had obtained 48.6% of the votes, and in the preliminary count, he reached 49.69%.
In the first round of the presidential election, no pollster predicted that the candidate with the most votes would be the now president-elect, Abelardo De La Espriella. However, for the second round, the scenario was different. Of the pollsters that presented their data, three predicted a victory for the candidate from the Defenders of the Homeland party, and only one, Celag Data, predicted a win for Iván Cepeda, which, given the results, makes Celag Data the biggest loser.
Taking this into account, among those that did correctly predict the winner, the one that came closest to the percentage of votes with which De La Espriella won was the one prepared by the Centro Nacional de Consultoría, CNC, since this reflected that he would have 48.6% of the votes, and for the results of the preliminary count with 99.74% of the polling stations reported, De La Espriella achieved 49.6% of the total, which represents a difference of only 1%.
Guarumo and Atlas Intel both overestimated the percentage, with Guarumo reporting 52.6% and Atlas Intel 53.2%, showing a margin of error of 3% and 4%, respectively. Celag Data was the furthest off the mark with 39.7%, a difference of 10% of the total votes.
Regarding the data received by Iván Cepeda, the polling firm that came closest was Guarumo with 45%, while he actually received 48.7% of the total vote. In this case, the difference was 3%, a wider margin than the closest result for De La Espriella. Next were the firms that most underestimated his vote: Centro Nacional de Consultoría and Atlas Intel, with 44.7% and 44.5%, respectively.
And Celag Data, although it predicted him as the winner, gave him 40.8% of the vote, a difference of 8%, similar to the closest result for De La Espriella.
Article taken from larepublica.co
By: Karen Pinto Duitama
Me impresionó que la encuesta del Centro Nacional de Consultoria fuera la que más se acercó a los resultados reales. Es fascinante cómo los datos bien recopilados pueden reflejar la realidad. Por cierto, para quienes buscan una forma creativa de plasmar ideas, el free graffiti generator es una herramienta genial para crear letras y arte callejero rápidamente.
Es sorprendente que la encuesta del Centro Nacional de Consultoría haya sido la más cercana a los resultados reales. La precisión es igualmente importante en el diseño arquitectónico, por eso he empezado a usar la ArchOne AI platform para generar visualizaciones de interiores y exteriores con gran exactitud.
It’s striking to see such wide gaps between poll predictions and real vote totals across these firms, showing how tricky electoral forecasting can be. I wish I could compare all these error margins quickly using satisfactorycalculator to spot bigger statistical patterns.
The CNC poll appears to have been the most accurate, coming closest to the final block blast online result.
The moment you survive your first long run, you notice something unexpected. The Crossy Road game doesn't simply get faster. It forces you to make decisions with less and less time to think.