The CAMBIO and Centro Nacional de Consultoría poll was the most accurate of the second round
- CNC
- Jun 22
- 2 min read
With the vote count virtually complete, the results of the Colombian presidential runoff confirmed what the Centro Nacional de Consultoría (CNC) had predicted with greater accuracy than its competitors: a much closer race than most polls before the election blackout period suggested.
A Closer Runoff Than Expected
According to the preliminary count from the National Registry, with more than 99 percent of the polling stations tallied, Abelardo de la Espriella won with 49.66 percent of the vote compared to Iván Cepeda's 48.70 percent, a difference of just 0.96 percentage points, the narrowest in the country's recent presidential runoff history. The official result is pending the proclamation by the electoral commissions.
This outcome contrasts sharply with the projections of the latest polls released before the blackout period. They all correctly predicted the winner, but only the CNC came close to the true magnitude of the difference:
The Margin: The Decisive Test
In an election that was ultimately decided by less than one point, the variable that best measures the quality of a poll is not only who wins, but how well it anticipates the actual magnitude of the victory. And in that regard, the CNC was, of the four firms, the closest to reality:
CNC projected a 3.9 percentage point lead; the actual result was 0.96 points—an error of just 2.9 points.
CB Global Data projected 6.3 points—an error of 5.3 points.
Guarumo projected 7.6 points—an error of 6.6 points.
Atlas Intel projected 7.8 points—an error of 6.8 points.
In other words, the CNC's margin of error was less than half that of any of the other three firms, which projected a much wider victory for De la Espriella than ultimately materialized.
Article taken from cambiocolombia.com
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